Gold Market Trend Analysis -
The global financial market continues to operate amidst uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and market concerns about energy demand are all key factors driving market trends. As major institutions release their latest analyses and forecasts, fluctuations in the gold, foreign exchange, and crude oil markets become increasingly apparent. The market is now widely betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. The latest CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market's expectation for this rate cut has reached as high as 90%. This news of consecutive rate cuts has, to some extent, aided gold bulls. Therefore, in recent trading sessions, there has been a noticeable bias towards buying gold on dips, and there is reason for gold's upward momentum.
Gold Technical Analysis -
The 4-hour chart shows a strong series of consecutive bullish candles, with three bullish candles in a day without any bearish candles interspersed, except for a small实体 cross K in the middle. This cross K pattern is a signal for a continuation of the upward trend. Prices did not encounter resistance and decline when touching the previously resisted levels of 2674 and 2678. The stronger the trend, the weaker the resistance above. The hourly chart correction pattern: after a strong bullish candle, the market mostly consolidates horizontally, and the correction time is relatively short, which lays the foundation for continued upward momentum. Especially during the midday session, the correction at the Monday high of 2666 forms a top-bottom conversion and continues to rise. The European session begins with only a single bearish candle, which is a hammer pattern and remains a signal for a continuation of the upward trend. The entire upward process during the day is strong, stable, and there is still room for further upward movement.
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Gold Trading Strategy: The key trading suggestion is to go short near the break of 2685-2680 and to buy on dips at the 2640-2645 levels. Focus on the resistance level of 2690-2700 and the support level near 2580-2590 during the day.
Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis -
The fluctuations in the crude oil market have once again become the focus of global market attention. The turbulent situation in the Middle East, especially the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, have driven short-term fluctuations in oil prices. Specifically, Iran's oil exports have been hindered, further triggering supply concerns, while sanctions and military actions between the United States and Israel are also stirring market sentiment. At the beginning of this month, Iran's oil exports showed a significant decline. According to tanker tracking company data, in the first ten days of October, Iran's oil exports plummeted to 600,000 barrels per day, down from an average of about 1.4 million barrels per month in the previous months. Such a sharp decline is undoubtedly due to rumors that Israel may attack Iranian oil facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu previously vowed that Iran would pay the price for the attack on Israel on October 1st, further intensifying market concerns about Iran's oil exports.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis:
Crude oil today has shown a narrow range of consolidation, with resistance at the $71.3 level and support hovering around the $70.0 level. On the daily chart, after a sharp decline, crude oil has recorded a large bearish candle, and the oil price has entered a consolidation phase. On the four-hour chart, the oil price is in a range-bound consolidation, with the Bollinger Bands opening downward. The current resistance level is focused on the $71.3 area. If there is an unexpected breakout, it could test the previous breakdown resistance level of $72.0. Based on the above analysis, I believe that after the bearish breakdown of crude oil, a narrow range of consolidation has occurred, further indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears. However, the bulls are unable to push higher, which will lead to a direct bearish breakdown. For future operations, consider focusing on short positions on rebounds, with low positions as a supplement. Pay attention to resistance at $71.3-$72.0 and support at $69.5-$68.5.
Based on the above analysis, crude oil has encountered resistance in its rise and has returned to a bearish pattern. Today's operation should consider short positions on rebounds as the main strategy, with low positions as a supplement. Focus on resistance at $72.9-$73.6 and support at $70.0-$69.0, so the main strategy for crude oil is to focus on short positions on rebounds.Spot Silver -
The silver market continued to test the bottom yesterday. After opening at 31.183 in the morning, the market first fell, with the daily low reaching 30.745. The market then strongly rebounded, touching a daily high of 31.688 before consolidating. The daily closing price was at 31.489, resulting in a hammer pattern with a long lower shadow. Following this pattern, which signals a double hammerhead lift on the daily chart, it is recommended to go long at 31.2 today, with a stop loss at 31, and a target to look at 31.75. If broken, further targets are 32, 32.2, and 32.5.